In exactly one year from today (June 12th, 2014), 31 teams will arrive in Brazil to join the Brazilian national team as the whistle blows in Brasilia to kick of the 2014 World Cup. Japan became the first team to join Brazil after their 1-1 tie against Australia on June 4th. 101 teams continue to fight for the 30 remaining spots.
Before I talk bout the teams that are currently in qualification positions but have not clinched just yet, I want to discuss one team that may need a reality check-- one team who although is pretty high in the current FIFA World Rankings (#9 to be exact)- a team that usually qualifies, is considered a favorite in every World Cup, but never quite makes it to the final, always choking when it matters most, but this time may not qualify at all (excuse me as I grieve.....I mean, laugh).
The last time the English missed out on a major tournament, Croatia had something to do with it. In Euro 2008 qualifying, Croatia stunned the English in two impressive matches. The English got their revenge, embarrassing the Croats in 2010 World Cup qualifying in both matches and causing them to miss out on that World Cup. The two teams are not in the same group in this qualifying tournament but England, with the tradition and history they have in the sports, should be doing a lot better. While Croatia still has work to do to qualify in their own group, England has a slightly deeper whole to crawl out of and may have to face the daunting reality that they MIGHT be closer to elimination (note that I did say MIGHT-they might still qualify-- it is not impossible). It's not completely over-- they still have matches that they should win on paper-- Moldova at home (if they don't come out of this with at least a tie, and I'm being generous, they don't deserve to qualify), Ukraine on the road (this could be a tough and stubborn team sometimes especially when they play in the Ukraine), and first place Montenegro at home (England tied 1-1 against them on the road).
England is currently in second place in Group H, 2 points behind Montenegro who has played one extra game. They are just a point clear of third place Ukraine while Poland is still mathematically alive to win the group as well. San Marino is eliminated and Moldova can only qualify through second place and a play off. Neither San Marino or Moldova should be a threat. However, San Marino's existence in the group could pose a problem for England should England end in second place- I will explain this later. Ukraine's remaining schedule is a bit easier than England's (aside from playing England at Wembley-- a tough place to play when the home team is a powerhouse and desperate, Ukraine still has to play San Marino twice-- home and away which should be an easy 6 points, and Poland at home-- the Ukranians beat Poland in Warsaw 3-1).
Montenegro, a weak team when they entered qualification and a team that most believed will do minimal damage to teams like England, tied England 1-1 in Podgorica and suffered only their first loss of their qualification campaign at the hands of Ukraine who shut them out 4-0 at home on June 7th. However, the rest of their results have been impressive for a team that was not expected to make too many waves-- their 1-1 tie at Wembley being a big example. In addition to their home match against England, they still have to play Poland on the road, and Moldova at home.
If England does not win this group, it is already a huge embarrassment for the powerhouse that always seems to disappoint their fans when it matters most. The can qualify in second place where they currently stand, but they have to be in the top 8 of the 9 second placed teams in order to qualify for the playoffs. They are currently 9th among second placed teams. Another factor that may hurt them is that if they finish in 2nd, their 2 wins against San Marino, the last placed team in the group, will not count. This is because one of the groups in the European qualifying tournament has one less teams than the others, making the number of matches played unbalanced. In order to rank the second place teams fairly, the match results against the last placed teams in the groups that have an extra team will be thrown out. This gives England only 6 points which puts them dead last among second place teams. This situation can improve for England if San Marino, who is already eliminated, takes at least 5 points and passes Moldova, but this is unlikely as San Marino has 0 points and a goal difference of -29 with no goals scored and still has to play teams like Ukraine and Poland. England has already played San Marino twice.
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
Thursday, March 28, 2013
UEFA Group A: Belgium and Croatia Keep Rolling, Scotland Eliminated
Group A Standings
1. Belgium 16 pts +10
2. Croatia 16 pts +7
3. Serbia 7 pts
4. Wales 6 pts
5. Macedonia 4 pts (can only qualify through playoff-- see below)
6. Scotland 2pts (eliminated)
With only 4 games left, the Scots are officially eliminated. Hey, I'm sad to see them go. There is a growing political movement within Scotland to officially end ties with English crown-- bye bye UK! There spirit of independence intrigues and inspires me. Sounds like 1776 all over again, maybe we should given the US Constitution, or hopefully Scottish pride will wake up some people in the States. Sorry, getting way off topic here! If you contact me through the comments below, I can give you access to my political blog.
Macedonia isn't officially eliminated yet but they cannot win the group so the only way they can qualify is if they take second place, lands in top 8 of the 9 second place teams, and wins their playoff on aggregate, but it seems like a longshot as Belgium and Croatia, the current teams that are at the top, steamroll through their opponents. Belgium was a big surprise to me. I though Serbia was going to be Croatia's only real competition, but after the 1-1 tie in Belgium, Belgium has matched up well against Croatia, which is making the heated rivalry between Croatia and Serbia more of a sideshow when it comes to qualifying. The Croatia-Serbia match in Serbia in September will probably be played for pride more than anything else since Serbia will probably be eliminated by then or close to it.
Wales lost 2-1 to Croatia in their last qualifying match. Wales plays their next match against Macedonia on September 16th. A loss for Macedonia will mean elimination from any chance of qualification. Macedonia can be a tricky and stubborn team so they can drag Wales down to. The chances for Wales to qualify is also slim but not mathematically impossible. Wales will be eliminated for sure if Belgium and Croatia win 1 more match.
Serbia's loss to Croatia was a huge hiccup and huge loss to a huge political rival. ("U boj u boj za narod svoj!"). Yeah, that's right, I'm Croatian!
The Serbs are still alive, but it is just a matter of time before they share the same fate of fellow former Yugoslav Republic, Macedonia, and eventually Scotland. Serbia's 2-0 defeat of Scotland killed the Scots hopes of qualifying on the last matchday. Serbia will be eliminated if they lose to Belgium on the next match day on June 7th, but Croatia must also defeat Scotland to send the Serbs packing so Croatia can still play a part in the the elimination of Serbia. The last time Croatia and Serbia were in the same group for a competition was for Euro 2000 qualification. Serbia won the group and Croatia did not qualify (Serbia and Croatia tied twice in two very heated and tense matches). Serbia was still in a union with Montenegro and they still played under the name "Yugoslavia" with the Yugoslav flag and the old Communist national anthem "Hej Slavs," all of which they finally abandoned when Serbia and Montenegro split after the 2006 World Cup although for this World Cup, they played under the name "Serbia and Montenegro" (by the way, Montenegro is doing very well in their own group which includes England-- I will talk about that in a later post). The 2006 World Cup was an embarrassment for the Serb dominated team which only included 2 Montenegrins and none of the players or fans even supported that national anthem or seemed to have any enthusiasm singing it. With so much political turmoil, the team had an embarrassing showing in 2006 which included an 8-0 shutout against Argentina. After that World Cup and after Montenegro peacefully separated, I read a comment on a blog from a Serbian fan who said the smartest thing among a bunch of other angry posts from Croatian and Serb nationalists. This one fan said that "we" lost Croatia, "we" lost the Adriatic (access to the sea), but "we" should still be thankful because "we" still have our country, an independent Serbia, a national anthem "we" can be proud of and not the old Communist one. Anyway, I completely went off topic with that- just thought I will bring up some history, so let me get back to the subject of this post.
If Belgium and Croatia continue winning like this, it will probably take Croatia's home match against Belgium at Poljud Stadium in Split (home of Hajduk Split) on October 11th. Croatia and Belgium tied the match in Belgium 1-1, but Belgium wins the tiebreaker over Croatia with a goal difference of +10 vs Croatia's +7. Belgium either has to lose matches against teams lower in the standings or Croatia has to outscore Belgium in matches against these weaker teams in order for Croatia to take the top spot and qualify directly. However, even the weaker teams of this group are stronger than Malta or Cyprus, the teams that Croatia is usually accustomed to playing in World Cup or Euro Cup qualifying tournaments. Croatia should not take any weaker team for granted. Based on history, I have seen Croatia come out of big wins too cocky and than screw up against smaller teams by drawing games that they should have won. In order for Croatia to qualify directly, the best thing would be if they beat Belgium at home.
1. Belgium 16 pts +10
2. Croatia 16 pts +7
3. Serbia 7 pts
4. Wales 6 pts
5. Macedonia 4 pts (can only qualify through playoff-- see below)
6. Scotland 2pts (eliminated)
With only 4 games left, the Scots are officially eliminated. Hey, I'm sad to see them go. There is a growing political movement within Scotland to officially end ties with English crown-- bye bye UK! There spirit of independence intrigues and inspires me. Sounds like 1776 all over again, maybe we should given the US Constitution, or hopefully Scottish pride will wake up some people in the States. Sorry, getting way off topic here! If you contact me through the comments below, I can give you access to my political blog.
Macedonia isn't officially eliminated yet but they cannot win the group so the only way they can qualify is if they take second place, lands in top 8 of the 9 second place teams, and wins their playoff on aggregate, but it seems like a longshot as Belgium and Croatia, the current teams that are at the top, steamroll through their opponents. Belgium was a big surprise to me. I though Serbia was going to be Croatia's only real competition, but after the 1-1 tie in Belgium, Belgium has matched up well against Croatia, which is making the heated rivalry between Croatia and Serbia more of a sideshow when it comes to qualifying. The Croatia-Serbia match in Serbia in September will probably be played for pride more than anything else since Serbia will probably be eliminated by then or close to it.
Wales lost 2-1 to Croatia in their last qualifying match. Wales plays their next match against Macedonia on September 16th. A loss for Macedonia will mean elimination from any chance of qualification. Macedonia can be a tricky and stubborn team so they can drag Wales down to. The chances for Wales to qualify is also slim but not mathematically impossible. Wales will be eliminated for sure if Belgium and Croatia win 1 more match.
Serbia's loss to Croatia was a huge hiccup and huge loss to a huge political rival. ("U boj u boj za narod svoj!"). Yeah, that's right, I'm Croatian!
The Serbs are still alive, but it is just a matter of time before they share the same fate of fellow former Yugoslav Republic, Macedonia, and eventually Scotland. Serbia's 2-0 defeat of Scotland killed the Scots hopes of qualifying on the last matchday. Serbia will be eliminated if they lose to Belgium on the next match day on June 7th, but Croatia must also defeat Scotland to send the Serbs packing so Croatia can still play a part in the the elimination of Serbia. The last time Croatia and Serbia were in the same group for a competition was for Euro 2000 qualification. Serbia won the group and Croatia did not qualify (Serbia and Croatia tied twice in two very heated and tense matches). Serbia was still in a union with Montenegro and they still played under the name "Yugoslavia" with the Yugoslav flag and the old Communist national anthem "Hej Slavs," all of which they finally abandoned when Serbia and Montenegro split after the 2006 World Cup although for this World Cup, they played under the name "Serbia and Montenegro" (by the way, Montenegro is doing very well in their own group which includes England-- I will talk about that in a later post). The 2006 World Cup was an embarrassment for the Serb dominated team which only included 2 Montenegrins and none of the players or fans even supported that national anthem or seemed to have any enthusiasm singing it. With so much political turmoil, the team had an embarrassing showing in 2006 which included an 8-0 shutout against Argentina. After that World Cup and after Montenegro peacefully separated, I read a comment on a blog from a Serbian fan who said the smartest thing among a bunch of other angry posts from Croatian and Serb nationalists. This one fan said that "we" lost Croatia, "we" lost the Adriatic (access to the sea), but "we" should still be thankful because "we" still have our country, an independent Serbia, a national anthem "we" can be proud of and not the old Communist one. Anyway, I completely went off topic with that- just thought I will bring up some history, so let me get back to the subject of this post.
If Belgium and Croatia continue winning like this, it will probably take Croatia's home match against Belgium at Poljud Stadium in Split (home of Hajduk Split) on October 11th. Croatia and Belgium tied the match in Belgium 1-1, but Belgium wins the tiebreaker over Croatia with a goal difference of +10 vs Croatia's +7. Belgium either has to lose matches against teams lower in the standings or Croatia has to outscore Belgium in matches against these weaker teams in order for Croatia to take the top spot and qualify directly. However, even the weaker teams of this group are stronger than Malta or Cyprus, the teams that Croatia is usually accustomed to playing in World Cup or Euro Cup qualifying tournaments. Croatia should not take any weaker team for granted. Based on history, I have seen Croatia come out of big wins too cocky and than screw up against smaller teams by drawing games that they should have won. In order for Croatia to qualify directly, the best thing would be if they beat Belgium at home.
Wednesday, March 27, 2013
CONCACAF standing updated: Panama takes top spot in "the Hex" while the USA and Mexico tie
It may have been a scoreless tie last night at the Azteca, but if you talk to the players and officials of the American and Mexican national teams, you will get very different reactions. The United States played very well and to them, this was a win against a Mexican team desperate for points and currently sits in 5th place, just out side of qualifying for the intercontinental playoff against New Zealand. Both teams had very slow starts in the fourth round of the CONCACAF (North America, Central America, and Caribbean zones for those few that don't know)) qualifying campaign- also known as "the Hex" or Hexagonal round. Both the United States and Mexico were also favorites to qualify before this round started.
Top 3 teams qualify automatically for the finals. The 4th place team must face New Zealand, the winner of the Oceania qualifying, in a two legged home and away intercontinental playoff for a chance to join the other three. None of these teams want to have to travel all the way to New Zealand so there will definitely be a fight to stay out of 4th place. The 5th and 6th place teams are eliminated. Currently, that is Mexico and Jamaica, the only Caribbean in the round. Here are the standings. As always, 3 pts for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss). First tiebreaker is goal difference.
1. Panama 5 pts
2. Costa Rica 4pts +1 (4-3)
3. USA 4 pts 0 (2-2)
4. Honduras 4 pts -1 (4-5)
5. Mexico 3 pts
6. Jamaica 2 pts
As you can see from the standings, all a team on the bottom needs to get to the top is one win so right now, all 6 teams are still in it. For example, Honduras was at the top of the standings before their game last night but a loss to Panama caused them to fall to the feared 4th place. Upsets are common and ties can screw up some of the bigger teams.
Next match day (Match day 4): June 7th (a long break from national team duty but players will be returning to their leagues-- many of the players that get called up for national team play, play for clubs in Europe. These leagues are very competitive so it isn't really a "break").
Honduras at Costa Rica: This will be an interesting match. Honduras beat the United States in the opener of this round which caused the Americans to worry but a tie against Mexico and a loss to Panama put them in 4th place. Costa Rica is a tough opponent at home but Honduras is not a weak team if they show up.
USA at Jamaica: The Stars and Stripes should not take this Caribbean team lightly even if they are at the bottom of the table. After all, they tied Panama and Mexico which is what gave them 2 points. If the United States played like they did against Mexico, they should win. Although the Americans played well against Mexico, that had a lot of luck on their side--a snowstorm in Denver which helped them beat a Costa Rican team not used to the weather and the ref was definitely on their side against Mexico, denying two penalties that I should honestly say should have been given (one is debatable). Were they really playing at the Azteca? Because I thought the home side always got the pass.
Mexico at Panama: I don't have much to say about this match. Mexico tied all 3 of their matches. Mexico should play this game as if its their last so they can get that much needed 3 points and so they don't go deeper into a whole.
Remaining schedule:
Matchday 5: June 11th
Costa Rica @ Mexico
Jamaica @ Honduras
Panama @ USA
Matchday 6: June 18th (the Mexico-Jamaica match will be played on June 4th to allow Mexico to play in the FIFA Confederations Cup, which I will talk about later in my general soccer blog).
Mexico @ Jamaica
Panama @ Costa Rica
Honduras @ USA
Matchday 7: September 6th
USA at Costa Rica
Honduras at Mexico
Jamaica at Panama
Matchday 8: September 10 (a day after my birthday...sorry just had to put that in there...haha)
Panama at Honduras
Costa Rica at Jamaica
Mexico at USA (important match for both teams...the rivalry continues.....)
Matchday 9: October 11th
Costa Rica at Honduras
Panama at Mexico
Jamaica at USA
Matchday 10 (final match day for the CONCACAF qualifying campaign): October 15th
Mexico at Costa Rica
Honduras at Jamaica
USA at Panama
Intercontinental playoff: 4th Place Team CONCACAF vs New Zealand
1st leg: Nov 15th
2nd leg: Nov 19th
(so in 8 months we will know who qualifies. It is still a LOOOOONG way to go and anything can happen. Can't wait!)
Top 3 teams qualify automatically for the finals. The 4th place team must face New Zealand, the winner of the Oceania qualifying, in a two legged home and away intercontinental playoff for a chance to join the other three. None of these teams want to have to travel all the way to New Zealand so there will definitely be a fight to stay out of 4th place. The 5th and 6th place teams are eliminated. Currently, that is Mexico and Jamaica, the only Caribbean in the round. Here are the standings. As always, 3 pts for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss). First tiebreaker is goal difference.
1. Panama 5 pts
2. Costa Rica 4pts +1 (4-3)
3. USA 4 pts 0 (2-2)
4. Honduras 4 pts -1 (4-5)
5. Mexico 3 pts
6. Jamaica 2 pts
As you can see from the standings, all a team on the bottom needs to get to the top is one win so right now, all 6 teams are still in it. For example, Honduras was at the top of the standings before their game last night but a loss to Panama caused them to fall to the feared 4th place. Upsets are common and ties can screw up some of the bigger teams.
Next match day (Match day 4): June 7th (a long break from national team duty but players will be returning to their leagues-- many of the players that get called up for national team play, play for clubs in Europe. These leagues are very competitive so it isn't really a "break").
Honduras at Costa Rica: This will be an interesting match. Honduras beat the United States in the opener of this round which caused the Americans to worry but a tie against Mexico and a loss to Panama put them in 4th place. Costa Rica is a tough opponent at home but Honduras is not a weak team if they show up.
USA at Jamaica: The Stars and Stripes should not take this Caribbean team lightly even if they are at the bottom of the table. After all, they tied Panama and Mexico which is what gave them 2 points. If the United States played like they did against Mexico, they should win. Although the Americans played well against Mexico, that had a lot of luck on their side--a snowstorm in Denver which helped them beat a Costa Rican team not used to the weather and the ref was definitely on their side against Mexico, denying two penalties that I should honestly say should have been given (one is debatable). Were they really playing at the Azteca? Because I thought the home side always got the pass.
Mexico at Panama: I don't have much to say about this match. Mexico tied all 3 of their matches. Mexico should play this game as if its their last so they can get that much needed 3 points and so they don't go deeper into a whole.
Remaining schedule:
Matchday 5: June 11th
Costa Rica @ Mexico
Jamaica @ Honduras
Panama @ USA
Matchday 6: June 18th (the Mexico-Jamaica match will be played on June 4th to allow Mexico to play in the FIFA Confederations Cup, which I will talk about later in my general soccer blog).
Mexico @ Jamaica
Panama @ Costa Rica
Honduras @ USA
Matchday 7: September 6th
USA at Costa Rica
Honduras at Mexico
Jamaica at Panama
Matchday 8: September 10 (a day after my birthday...sorry just had to put that in there...haha)
Panama at Honduras
Costa Rica at Jamaica
Mexico at USA (important match for both teams...the rivalry continues.....)
Matchday 9: October 11th
Costa Rica at Honduras
Panama at Mexico
Jamaica at USA
Matchday 10 (final match day for the CONCACAF qualifying campaign): October 15th
Mexico at Costa Rica
Honduras at Jamaica
USA at Panama
Intercontinental playoff: 4th Place Team CONCACAF vs New Zealand
1st leg: Nov 15th
2nd leg: Nov 19th
(so in 8 months we will know who qualifies. It is still a LOOOOONG way to go and anything can happen. Can't wait!)
FIFA sets date for 2014 World Cup Draw
On Tuesday March 19th, FIFA had a meeting in Zurich, Switzerland with the organizers of the 2014 World Cup finals in Brazil, where they officially confirmed that the drawing of groups for the first round will be on December 6th at 1 pm Brasilia standard time. While this announcement adds to the anticipation, the first whistle to start the first match of the tournament will not be heard for more than a year (442 days to be exact).
Meanwhile, national teams are still competing for the right to be one of the 31 nations to join Brazil at the big event, and I will do my best to bring you my own unique news and analysis.
Meanwhile, national teams are still competing for the right to be one of the 31 nations to join Brazil at the big event, and I will do my best to bring you my own unique news and analysis.
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