In exactly one year from today (June 12th, 2014), 31 teams will arrive in Brazil to join the Brazilian national team as the whistle blows in Brasilia to kick of the 2014 World Cup. Japan became the first team to join Brazil after their 1-1 tie against Australia on June 4th. 101 teams continue to fight for the 30 remaining spots.
Before I talk bout the teams that are currently in qualification positions but have not clinched just yet, I want to discuss one team that may need a reality check-- one team who although is pretty high in the current FIFA World Rankings (#9 to be exact)- a team that usually qualifies, is considered a favorite in every World Cup, but never quite makes it to the final, always choking when it matters most, but this time may not qualify at all (excuse me as I grieve.....I mean, laugh).
The last time the English missed out on a major tournament, Croatia had something to do with it. In Euro 2008 qualifying, Croatia stunned the English in two impressive matches. The English got their revenge, embarrassing the Croats in 2010 World Cup qualifying in both matches and causing them to miss out on that World Cup. The two teams are not in the same group in this qualifying tournament but England, with the tradition and history they have in the sports, should be doing a lot better. While Croatia still has work to do to qualify in their own group, England has a slightly deeper whole to crawl out of and may have to face the daunting reality that they MIGHT be closer to elimination (note that I did say MIGHT-they might still qualify-- it is not impossible). It's not completely over-- they still have matches that they should win on paper-- Moldova at home (if they don't come out of this with at least a tie, and I'm being generous, they don't deserve to qualify), Ukraine on the road (this could be a tough and stubborn team sometimes especially when they play in the Ukraine), and first place Montenegro at home (England tied 1-1 against them on the road).
England is currently in second place in Group H, 2 points behind Montenegro who has played one extra game. They are just a point clear of third place Ukraine while Poland is still mathematically alive to win the group as well. San Marino is eliminated and Moldova can only qualify through second place and a play off. Neither San Marino or Moldova should be a threat. However, San Marino's existence in the group could pose a problem for England should England end in second place- I will explain this later. Ukraine's remaining schedule is a bit easier than England's (aside from playing England at Wembley-- a tough place to play when the home team is a powerhouse and desperate, Ukraine still has to play San Marino twice-- home and away which should be an easy 6 points, and Poland at home-- the Ukranians beat Poland in Warsaw 3-1).
Montenegro, a weak team when they entered qualification and a team that most believed will do minimal damage to teams like England, tied England 1-1 in Podgorica and suffered only their first loss of their qualification campaign at the hands of Ukraine who shut them out 4-0 at home on June 7th. However, the rest of their results have been impressive for a team that was not expected to make too many waves-- their 1-1 tie at Wembley being a big example. In addition to their home match against England, they still have to play Poland on the road, and Moldova at home.
If England does not win this group, it is already a huge embarrassment for the powerhouse that always seems to disappoint their fans when it matters most. The can qualify in second place where they currently stand, but they have to be in the top 8 of the 9 second placed teams in order to qualify for the playoffs. They are currently 9th among second placed teams. Another factor that may hurt them is that if they finish in 2nd, their 2 wins against San Marino, the last placed team in the group, will not count. This is because one of the groups in the European qualifying tournament has one less teams than the others, making the number of matches played unbalanced. In order to rank the second place teams fairly, the match results against the last placed teams in the groups that have an extra team will be thrown out. This gives England only 6 points which puts them dead last among second place teams. This situation can improve for England if San Marino, who is already eliminated, takes at least 5 points and passes Moldova, but this is unlikely as San Marino has 0 points and a goal difference of -29 with no goals scored and still has to play teams like Ukraine and Poland. England has already played San Marino twice.
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