Group A Standings
1. Belgium 16 pts +10
2. Croatia 16 pts +7
3. Serbia 7 pts
4. Wales 6 pts
5. Macedonia 4 pts (can only qualify through playoff-- see below)
6. Scotland 2pts (eliminated)
With only 4 games left, the Scots are officially eliminated. Hey, I'm sad to see them go. There is a growing political movement within Scotland to officially end ties with English crown-- bye bye UK! There spirit of independence intrigues and inspires me. Sounds like 1776 all over again, maybe we should given the US Constitution, or hopefully Scottish pride will wake up some people in the States. Sorry, getting way off topic here! If you contact me through the comments below, I can give you access to my political blog.
Macedonia isn't officially eliminated yet but they cannot win the group so the only way they can qualify is if they take second place, lands in top 8 of the 9 second place teams, and wins their playoff on aggregate, but it seems like a longshot as Belgium and Croatia, the current teams that are at the top, steamroll through their opponents. Belgium was a big surprise to me. I though Serbia was going to be Croatia's only real competition, but after the 1-1 tie in Belgium, Belgium has matched up well against Croatia, which is making the heated rivalry between Croatia and Serbia more of a sideshow when it comes to qualifying. The Croatia-Serbia match in Serbia in September will probably be played for pride more than anything else since Serbia will probably be eliminated by then or close to it.
Wales lost 2-1 to Croatia in their last qualifying match. Wales plays their next match against Macedonia on September 16th. A loss for Macedonia will mean elimination from any chance of qualification. Macedonia can be a tricky and stubborn team so they can drag Wales down to. The chances for Wales to qualify is also slim but not mathematically impossible. Wales will be eliminated for sure if Belgium and Croatia win 1 more match.
Serbia's loss to Croatia was a huge hiccup and huge loss to a huge political rival. ("U boj u boj za narod svoj!"). Yeah, that's right, I'm Croatian!
The Serbs are still alive, but it is just a matter of time before they share the same fate of fellow former Yugoslav Republic, Macedonia, and eventually Scotland. Serbia's 2-0 defeat of Scotland killed the Scots hopes of qualifying on the last matchday. Serbia will be eliminated if they lose to Belgium on the next match day on June 7th, but Croatia must also defeat Scotland to send the Serbs packing so Croatia can still play a part in the the elimination of Serbia. The last time Croatia and Serbia were in the same group for a competition was for Euro 2000 qualification. Serbia won the group and Croatia did not qualify (Serbia and Croatia tied twice in two very heated and tense matches). Serbia was still in a union with Montenegro and they still played under the name "Yugoslavia" with the Yugoslav flag and the old Communist national anthem "Hej Slavs," all of which they finally abandoned when Serbia and Montenegro split after the 2006 World Cup although for this World Cup, they played under the name "Serbia and Montenegro" (by the way, Montenegro is doing very well in their own group which includes England-- I will talk about that in a later post). The 2006 World Cup was an embarrassment for the Serb dominated team which only included 2 Montenegrins and none of the players or fans even supported that national anthem or seemed to have any enthusiasm singing it. With so much political turmoil, the team had an embarrassing showing in 2006 which included an 8-0 shutout against Argentina. After that World Cup and after Montenegro peacefully separated, I read a comment on a blog from a Serbian fan who said the smartest thing among a bunch of other angry posts from Croatian and Serb nationalists. This one fan said that "we" lost Croatia, "we" lost the Adriatic (access to the sea), but "we" should still be thankful because "we" still have our country, an independent Serbia, a national anthem "we" can be proud of and not the old Communist one. Anyway, I completely went off topic with that- just thought I will bring up some history, so let me get back to the subject of this post.
If Belgium and Croatia continue winning like this, it will probably take Croatia's home match against Belgium at Poljud Stadium in Split (home of Hajduk Split) on October 11th. Croatia and Belgium tied the match in Belgium 1-1, but Belgium wins the tiebreaker over Croatia with a goal difference of +10 vs Croatia's +7. Belgium either has to lose matches against teams lower in the standings or Croatia has to outscore Belgium in matches against these weaker teams in order for Croatia to take the top spot and qualify directly. However, even the weaker teams of this group are stronger than Malta or Cyprus, the teams that Croatia is usually accustomed to playing in World Cup or Euro Cup qualifying tournaments. Croatia should not take any weaker team for granted. Based on history, I have seen Croatia come out of big wins too cocky and than screw up against smaller teams by drawing games that they should have won. In order for Croatia to qualify directly, the best thing would be if they beat Belgium at home.
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